1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿合并急性心肌损伤的风险预测模型构建与验证
CSTR:
作者:
作者单位:

1.宁波大学医学部, 浙江 宁波 315211;2.宁波大学附属妇女儿童医院 小儿内分泌 遗传代谢科, 浙江 宁波 315012;3.宁波大学附属妇女儿童医院 小儿心内科, 浙江 宁波 315012

作者简介:

通讯作者:

邱海燕,E-mail:qhy86@Sina.com 163;Tel:13605742274

中图分类号:

R587.1

基金项目:

浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目(No:2023KY290)


Construction and validation of risk model for acute myocardial injury in children with type 1 diabetes and diabetic ketoacidosis
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Health Science Center, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang 315211, China;2.Department of Pediatric Endocrinology, Genetics and Metabolism, Women and Children's Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang 315012, China;3.Department of Pediatric Cardiology, Women and Children's Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang 315012, China

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    目的 探讨1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿发生急性心肌损伤的相关因素,并构建风险预测模型。方法 回顾性分析2018年7月—2023年7月宁波大学附属妇女儿童医院接诊的146例1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿的病历资料,依据8∶2原则,将患儿随机分为训练集(116例)和验证集(30例)。根据是否合并急性心肌损伤,将患儿分为合并组和非合并组,比较两组的心功能指标[肌钙蛋白I(cTnI)、肌酸激酶(CK)、肌酸激酶同工酶(CK-MB)、N-末端脑钠肽前体(NT-proBNP)]、心电图指标[P波离散度、Q波离散度、QT间期]、血细胞[白细胞、红细胞、中性粒细胞、血红蛋白、血小板计数]。采用多因素一般Logistic回归模型分析1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿急性心肌损伤的危险因素;构建Nomogram列线图模型,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线验证模型的预测价值。结果 146例1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿中合并急性心肌损伤16例,包括训练集12例和验证集4例。合并组的cTnI、CK-MB、NT-proBNP均高于非合并组(P <0.05),两组CK水平比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。合并组的P波离散度、Q波离散度和QT间期均高于非合并组(P <0.05)。两组血细胞水平的比较,差异均无统计学意义(P >0.05)。cTnI水平高[O^R =4.870(95% CI:2.083,11.386)]、CK-MB水平高[O^R =4.778(95% CI:2.043,11.171)]、NT-proBNP水平高[O^R =4.702(95% CI:2.011,10.994)]、P波离散度高[O^R =4.601(95% CI:1.967,10.754)]、Q波离散度高[O^R =4.749(95% CI:2.031,11.105)]、QT间期高[O^R =4.973(95% CI:2.127,11.627)]均是1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿发生急性心肌损伤的危险因素(P <0.05)。该风险模型在训练集中的敏感性为76.9%(95% CI:0.714,0.935),特异性为85.9%(95% CI:0.812,0.932)。ROC曲线分析结果显示,在验证集中该风险模型预测1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿发生急性心肌损伤的敏感性为77.2%(95% CI:0.715,0.908),特异性为83.7%(95% CI:0.772,0.925)。结论 cTnI、CK-MB、NT-proBNP、P波离散度、Q波离散度、QT间期变化是1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿发生急性心肌损伤的独立危险因素,由这些因素构建的风险预测模型具有良好的预测性能,这将有助于早期识别1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿发生急性心肌损伤的风险。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the factors of acute myocardial injury in children with type 1 diabetes and diabetic ketoacidosis, and to establish a risk prediction model.Methods Retrospective analysis was made on the medical records of 146 children with type 1 diabetic ketoacidosis who were admitted to the hospital from July 2018 to July 2023. They were randomly divided into 116 training sets and 30 validation sets according to the 8:2 principle. Patients were categorized into a myocardial injury group and a non-myocardial injury group based on the presence of acute myocardial injury. Cardiac function indicators [cardiac troponin I (cTnI), creatine kinase (CK), creatine kinase isoenzyme (CK-MB), N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT proBNP) ], electrocardiogram indicators [P-wave dispersion, Q-wave dispersion, QT interval], and blood cells [white blood cells, red blood cells, neutrophils, hemoglobin, platelet count] were compared between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for acute myocardial injury in children with type 1 diabetes and diabetic ketoacidosis and to validate the predictive value of the model.Results Among 146 children with type 1 diabetic ketoacidosis, 16 cases were complicated with acute myocardial injury, including 12 cases in the training set and 4 cases in the validation set. The cTnI, CK-MB, and NT proBNP levels in the merged group were higher than those in the non merged group (P < 0.05), while there was no statistically significant difference in CK levels between the two groups (P > 0.05). The P-wave dispersion, Q-wave dispersion, and QT interval of the merged group were higher than those of the non merged group (P < 0.05). The comparison of blood cell counts showed no statistically significant difference (P > 0.05). High levels of cTnI [O^R =4.870 (95% CI: 2.083, 11.386)], CK-MB [O^R =4.778 (95% CI: 2.043, 11.171) ], NT proBNP [O^R =4.702 (95% CI: 2.011, 10.994) ], P wave dispersion [O^R =4.601 (95% CI: 1.967, 10.754) ], Q wave dispersion [O^R =4.749 (95% CI: 2.031, 11.105) ], and QT interval [O^R =4.973 (95% CI: 2.127, 11.627) ] are all type 1 diabetic ketoacidosis risk factors of acute myocardial injury in children (P <0.05). The sensitivity of this risk model in the training set is 76.9% (95% CI: 0.714, 0.935), and the specificity is 85.9% (95% CI: 0.812, 0.932). Through ROC analysis, the sensitivity and specificity of this risk model in predicting acute myocardial injury in children with type 1 diabetic ketoacidosis were 77.2% (95% CI: 0.715, 0.908) and 83.7% (95% CI: 0.772, 0.925), respectively.Conclusion The changes of cTnI, CK-MB, NT proBNP, P-wave dispersion, Q-wave dispersion, and QT interval are independent risk factors for acute myocardial injury in children with type 1 diabetes and diabetic ketoacidosis. Building a risk prediction model is helpful to identify the occurrence risk of acute myocardial injury at an early stage.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

丁曙霞,赵余丹,陈佳音,方洁,邱海燕.1型糖尿病酮症酸中毒患儿合并急性心肌损伤的风险预测模型构建与验证[J].中国现代医学杂志,2025,35(7):8-15

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-25
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-18
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码