基于凝血因子Ⅷ/Ⅸ、纤维蛋白原及C反应蛋白对恶性肿瘤患者静脉血栓栓塞的预测模型构建
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1.青海红十字医院 急诊医学科, 青海 西宁 810000;2.青海红十字医院 消化内科, 青海 西宁 810000;3.青海省人民医院 急诊医学科, 青海 西宁 810007

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R730.6;R364.15

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青海省科技项目(No:2022-wjzd-56)


Prediction model of venous thromboembolism in patients with malignant tumors based on coagulation factors Ⅷ/Ⅸ, fibrinogen, and C-reactive protein
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1.Department of Emergency Medicine, Qinghai Red Cross Hospital, Xining, Qinghai 810000, China;2.Department of Gastroenterology, Qinghai Red Cross Hospital, Xining, Qinghai 810000, China;3.Department of Emergency Medicine, Qinghai Provincial People's Hospital, Xining, Qinghai 810007, China

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨凝血因子Ⅷ/Ⅸ、纤维蛋白原及C反应蛋白(CRP)对恶性肿瘤患者静脉血栓栓塞的影响,构建并验证预测模型。方法 选取2021年1月—2024年1月青海红十字医院收治的恶性肿瘤患者共271例,根据患者是否发生静脉血栓栓塞分为静脉血栓栓塞组(51例)和非静脉血栓栓塞组(220例)。比较两组患者的临床资料,凝血因子Ⅷ/Ⅸ、纤维蛋白原及CRP水平;采用多因素一般Logistic回归模型分析恶性肿瘤患者静脉血栓栓塞的危险因素,并构建发生静脉血栓栓塞风险识别模型;采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线及Hosmer-Lemeshow检验验证该模型的区分度和拟合度。结果 静脉血栓栓塞组糖尿病患病率、接受手术率、接受化疗率及Khorana风险评估模型评分≥ 2分占比均高于非静脉血栓栓塞组(P <0.05)。静脉血栓栓塞组Ⅷ/Ⅸ、纤维蛋白原和CRP水平均高于非静脉血栓栓塞组(P <0.05)。凝血因子Ⅷ/Ⅸ水平高[O^R =2.721(95% CI:2.379,3.063)]、纤维蛋白原水平高[O^R =2.354(95% CI:1.225,3.482)]、CRP水平高[O^R =2.149(95% CI:1.354,2.944)]、化疗[O^R =1.960(95% CI:1.754,3.166)]、Khorana风险评估模型评分≥ 2分[O^R =2.472(95% CI:1.414,4.321)]均是恶性肿瘤患者发生静脉血栓栓塞的危险因素(P <0.05);基于危险因素构建列线图模型,总分为145~425分,对应风险范围0.1~0.9,分数越高发生静脉血栓栓塞的风险越大;ROC曲线结果显示,该模型预测发生静脉血栓栓塞的曲线下面积为0.905(95% CI:0.854,0.942),敏感性为92.68%、特异性为83.22%、约登指数为0.759;Calibration曲线显示,该预测模型的校准曲线与实际曲线接近重合(P >0.05)。结论 基于凝血因子Ⅷ/Ⅸ、纤维蛋白原及CRP构建的恶性肿瘤患者静脉血栓栓塞列线图模型具有良好的区分度和准确度。

    Abstract:

    Methods A total of 271 patients with malignant tumors admitted to the hospital from January 2019 to January 2019 were selected and divided into VTE group (51 cases) and non-VTE group (220 cases) according to whether the patients had VTE. Coagulation factors Ⅷ/Ⅸ, fibrinogen, CRP and general data of the two groups were compared, and the risk factors of VTE in patients with malignant tumors were determined by Logistic regression analysis. A VTE risk identification model was constructed according to the influencing factors, and the distinction and fit of the model were verified by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.Results Ⅷ level, Ⅸ level, fibrinogen level and CRP level in VTE group were higher than those in non-VTE group (P < 0.05). The prevalence rate of diabetes mellitus, the rate of receiving surgery, the rate of receiving chemotherapy and the score of Khorana risk assessment model ≥ 2 in VTE group were higher than those in non-VTE group (P < 0.05). High coagulation factor Ⅷ/Ⅸ level [O^R =2.721 (95% CI: 2.379, 3.063) ], high fibrinogen level [O^R =2.354 (95% CI: 1.225, 3.482) ], high CRP level [O^R =2.149 (95% CI: 1.354, 2.944) ], chemotherapy [O^R =1.960 (95% CI: 1.754, 3.166) ], Khorana risk assessment model score ≥ 2 points [O^R =2.472 (95% CI: 1.414, 4.321) ] were risk factors for VTE in patients with malignant tumors (P < 0.05). A nomogram model was constructed based on risk factors. The total score was 145 to 425, corresponding to the risk range of 0.1 to 0.9, the higher the score, the greater the risk of VTE. ROC curve was drawn according to the results of VTE risk curve of malignant tumor patients. The results showed that the area under the curve of the model was 0.905 (95% CI: 0.854, 0.942), the sensitivity was 92.68%, the specificity was 83.22%, and the Yoden index was 0.759. Calibration curve shows that the calibration curve of this prediction model is close to the actual curve, (P > 0.05).Conclusion The VTE nomogram model of malignant tumor patients based on coagulation factor Ⅷ/Ⅸ, fibrinogen and CRP has good differentiation and accuracy.Objectiv To explore the effects of coagulation factor Ⅷ/Ⅸ, fibrinogen and C-reactive protein (CRP) on venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with malignant tumors, and build a prediction model.

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才新,韩敏,卓尕吉,刘晓云.基于凝血因子Ⅷ/Ⅸ、纤维蛋白原及C反应蛋白对恶性肿瘤患者静脉血栓栓塞的预测模型构建[J].中国现代医学杂志,2025,35(7):78-84

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-18
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